The motivation behind this monthly newsletter is to provide better and more frequent communication to CAASA members, and to solicit suggestions and responses to the contents. We need input from you to ensure that the content of this newsletter, our webinars and annual conference remain both topical and relevant.
As part of the World Economic Forum (WEF) shindig held in Davos, Switzerland, the WEF produces a Global Risk Report.
The over-arching theme of the global risks outlook in 2026 is one of uncertainty, both in the short and long term. Respondents viewed both the short- and long-term global outlook negatively, with 50% of respondents anticipating either a turbulent or stormy outlook over the next two years, declining to 57% of respondents over the next 10 years.
The main findings are:
Multilateralism is retreating - The multilateral rules-based system is under pressure. Declining trust, diminishing transparency and respect for the rule of law, along with heightened protectionism, are threatening longstanding international relations, trade and investment and increasing the propensity for conflict.
Economic risks are intensifying - Economic risks, taken collectively, show the largest increases in ranking over the next two years, from relatively low rankings in 2025. Economic downturn and Inflation are both up eight positions, with a similar uptick for Asset bubble burst, up seven positions. Economic downturn has witnessed one of the largest increases in severity score compared with 2025 findings, behind only Geoeconomic confrontation. Mounting debt sustainability concerns coupled with potential economic bubbles – in the context of rising Geoeconomic confrontation – could bring in a new phase of volatility, further destabilizing societies and businesses.
Technological risks are growing, largely unchecked - Technological developments and new innovations are driving opportunities, with vast potential benefits from health and education to agriculture and infrastructure, but also leading to new risks, from labour markets to information integrity to autonomous weapons systems. Misinformation and disinformation and Cyber insecurity ranked #2 and #6, respectively, on the two-year outlook. Adverse outcomes of AI is the risk with the largest rise in ranking over time, moving from #30 on the two-year outlook to #5 on the 10-year outlook.
Societies are on the edge - Rising societal and political polarization is intensifying pressures on democratic systems, as extremist social, cultural and political movements challenge institutional resilience and public trust. The growing prevalence of “streets versus elites”narratives reflect deepening disillusionment with traditional governance structures, leaving many citizens feeling excluded from political decision-making processes and increasingly sceptical that policymaking can deliver tangible improvements to livelihoods. Inequality was selected by respondents as the most interconnected global risk for a second-year running, followed closely by Economic downturn.
Environmental concerns are being deprioritized - The findings suggest heightened prioritization of non-environmental risks relative to environmental ones compared to previous years. In the outlook for the next two years, the majority of environmental risks experienced declines in ranking, with Extreme weather events moving from #2 to #4 and Pollution from #6 to #9. Critical change to earth systems, Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse also declined, by seven and five positions, respectively, and are in the lower half of the risk list this year in the two-year outlook. All environmental risks also declined in severity score for the two-year time horizon compared with 2025’s findings. In other words, not only do their rankings decline relative to other risk categories, but there has also been an absolute shift away from concerns about the environment.
Entropy is a measure of disorder or randomness in a system, where energy or matter spreads out and becomes less organized over time. All systems start out in an organised fashion with low entropy and, over time, become disorganised, with high entropy. The process is often gradual at first but then accelerates towards the end. Consider a block of ice which gets heated. It starts off as a solid, highly organised, with low entropy, and ends up as a gas, very disorganised, with high entropy.
As the Canadian Prime minister pointed out at Davos we have moved from an organised “rules based” world to a disorganised world where the strong seek to impose their beliefs on the others.
Politicians are driven by short term thinking – what’s in it for me – rather than what is best for humanity in the long term. Few are willing to endure short term pain for long term gain. They will do and say whatever is necessary to get re-elected. The mere fact that someone wants to be a politician should automatically exclude them from ever becoming one.
The question is can disorder be reversed? Is there a tipping point after which it is too late, and have we reached it yet?
Fasten your seatbelts – we are in for a bumpy ride.
CAASA MATTERS
Our monthly webinars commenced on 13 February 2026. The first 3 sessions will delve into compensation events under the NEC starting with how the contract deals with inclement weather. The next session is on Friday 13th March. Michelle Kerr will discuss the NEC Schedule of Cost Components and just what is Defined Cost.
CAASA has kept membership fees at a very reasonable level for the past years. Compared to other similar organisations CAASA members enjoy many benefits at a small cost.
This year we are raising the membership fee to R 900.00 per annum, which is still very affordable. Membership invoices will be sent out towards the end of this month. Please pay promptly.
